Data covering the marine environment, including fisheries, coral reef  health, ocean chemistry, and coastal zones.

oceans-seas-coasts

Oceans, Seas, & Coasts

### Overview  
  
The Frequency of Future Coral Reef Bleaching Events dataset shows the number of years during the 2030 and 2050 decades that coral bleaching is likely to occur from increased water temperature. The dataset relies on a thermal stress model that uses the units degree heating months (DHM) to determine risk of bleaching. A water temperature rise of 2 degrees celsius is equal to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Bleaching Alert Level 2, where bleaching will likely occur. The final dataset is presented at a gridded spatial resolution of 50 km and shows the number of years each grid cell will reach a DHM of at least 2 during the decade. 

  
  
This dataset was created by the World Resources Institute (WRI) in conjunction with Simon Donner at the University of British Columbia. It was created as part of the Reefs at Risk Revisited project to assess the status and threats to the world’s coral reefs. It can be used to help determine government policy and increase awareness on the issue. It strives to create public understanding on the importance of protecting coral reefs for future generations. Coral reefs play an integral role in the world. They are where over 25% of all marine species live and over 25 million people are directly reliant on coral reefs for their livelihood. They are the breeding grounds and nurseries for many species and without them the ocean would become much less productive.
  
  
### Methodology  
  
This dataset was created by using future ocean water temperature predictions to determine how many years during the 2030s and 2050s would experience water in the bleaching temperature range. Future ocean temperature predictions were collected and paired with IPCC Scenario A1B on emissions to simulate the effects of “business as usual” greenhouse gas emissions. This assumed the rate of emissions would not decrease in the future and it will continue to grow at the same rate it currently is now. The temperature data was input into a thermal stress model from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The model determined which 50 km ocean grid cells had a high risk of a coral bleaching event occurring using the units degree heating months (DHM). A DHM (in °C-month) of one is equal to 1 month of sea surface temperature that is 1°C greater than the maximum in the monthly climatology, known as the maximum monthly mean. Any grid cell that reached a DHM of 2 at any point throughout the year was classified as “likely to have coral bleaching” in the final dataset for that year. A DHM of two is equal to the NOAA Bleaching Alert Level 2, which represents conditions that can cause severe coral bleaching and/or mortality. 

  
  
The dataset was classified into three threat level categories. “Low” risk grid cells had 25% or less of the years out of the decade falling in the coral bleaching range, “medium” was between 25% and 50%, and “high” was more than 50% of the years in the decade. The final dataset was presented in raster format to show the percentage of years during the decades 2030 and 2050 each 50 km grid cell was expected to have coral bleaching occur.

  
  
Data on water temperature predictions and models were provided by Simon Donner at the University of British Columbia. For the full documentation, please click on the “Learn more” button.  
  
### Additional Information  
  
From the same dataset Resource Watch also shows [Local Threats to Coral Reefs](https://resourcewatch.org/data/explore/bio024-try-2) and [Socioeconomic Dependance Dependance on Coral Reefs](https://resourcewatch.org/data/explore/bio031-Social-and-Economic-Dependence-on-Coral-Reefs_replacement). 
  
  

Resource Watch shows only a subset of the dataset. Additional coral reef threat data on coastal development, watershed-based pollution, marine-based pollution, over/destructive fishing, and ocean acidification is available from the data provider. For access to the full dataset and additional information, click on the “Learn more” button.
  
  
### Disclaimer  
  
Excerpts of this description page were taken from the source metadata.

Frequency of Future Coral Reef Bleaching Events in the 2030s and 2050s

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2050 Coral Bleaching Frequency (% of years per decade)

2030 Coral Bleaching Frequency (% of years per decade)

Projection for future global coral reef bleaching events during the decades 2030 and 2050

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Frequency of Future Coral Reef Bleaching Events

2050 Coral Bleaching Frequency (% of years per decade)

2030 Coral Bleaching Frequency (% of years per decade)