Data related to Earth’s atmosphere, including air quality,  GHG fluxes from land, historical weather patterns, and climate model outputs.

atmosphere

Atmosphere

Data related to food security, production, yield, suitability, and waste. 

food

Food

### Overview  
  
These maps show the probability that annual precipitation will be within or outside the range necessary for the growth of coffee (Coffea arabica), as calculated by researchers at World Resources Institute using a combination of historical satellite data and climate simulations of future precipitation. Users can choose to see probabilities of insufficient precipitation, excessive precipitation, or precipitation within coffee’s required range. Because they are probabilities, pixel values range from 0 to 1. Probabilities are available for any location on the globe, for every 10 years from 2020 to 2099. Gridded data is available at a spatial resolution of 0.25 arc degrees, which is approximately 25 kilometers (km) x 25 km at the equator but [changes with distance](https://www.thoughtco.com/degree-of-latitude-and-longitude-distance-4070616) from the equator. 
 
Like all agricultural crops, coffee can grow only in locations that meet particular climatic requirements. Coffee requires between 750 mm and 4200 mm of precipitation every year ([FAO ECOCROP]( https://gaez.fao.org/pages/ecocrop)). As global climate patterns change, the locations suitable for growing coffee are likely to shift. It is impossible to predict with certainty where coffee will and will not be able to be grown in the coming decades, but we are able to estimate the probability that any location is suitable. In these maps, we focus on suitability related to precipitation, but similar maps can be generated for coffee’s (and other crops’) temperature ranges, humidity ranges, and combinations of these factors. 
 
These maps were generated by the AgriAdapt team at World Resources Institute to support growers, processors, buyers, and investors in making long-term, climate-smart decisions about crops and growing locations.   
  
### Methodology  
  
The probabilities are calculated as Bayesian posterior probabilities that yearlong precipitation falls within or outside the range 750 mm – 4200 mm. The prior probability is taken from historical rainfall as reported in the [ERA5](https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/CKB/ERA5%3A+data+documentation) reanalysis of satellite data. The prior is updated using the [NEX-GDDP](https://esgf.nccs.nasa.gov/esgdoc/NEX-GDDP_Tech_Note_v0.pdf) downscaled simulation ensemble as evidence. NEX-GDDP includes several greenhouse gas emission scenarios. These calculations used the highest-emitting scenario, RCP8.5. The probability rasters have a spatial resolution of 0.25 arc degrees (approximately 25 km at the equator). 
 
The full methodology will be published as a WRI Technical Note (Wong and Mackres, forthcoming).   
  
### Additional Information  
  
Our data catalog shows only a subset of the dataset. For access to the full dataset and additional information, click on the “Learn more” button.  
  
### Visualizing the Data  
  
Our team reformatted this dataset before displaying it on WRI’s data catalog.  
  
### Disclaimer  
  
Excerpts of this description page were taken from the source metadata.

Future Precipitation Suitability for Coffee Growth

cli-003-rw0-future-precipitation-suitability-for-coffee-growth-rw

2020 Probability of Precipitation (<750 mm) RCP 8.5

2060 Probability of Precipitation (750 mm-4200 mm) RCP 8.5

2030 Probability of Precipitation (>4200 mm) RCP 8.5

2030 Probability of Precipitation (750 mm-4200 mm) RCP 8.5

2040 Probability of Precipitation (750 mm-4200 mm) RCP 8.5

2050 Probability of Precipitation (750 mm-4200 mm) RCP 8.5

2070 Probability of Precipitation (750 mm-4200 mm) RCP 8.5

2080 Probability of Precipitation (750 mm-4200 mm) RCP 8.5

2090 Probability of Precipitation (750 mm-4200 mm) RCP 8.5

2099 Probability of Precipitation (750 mm-4200 mm) RCP 8.5

2030 Probability of Precipitation (<750 mm) RCP 8.5

2040 Probability of Precipitation (<750 mm) RCP 8.5

2050 Probability of Precipitation (<750 mm) RCP 8.5

2060 Probability of Precipitation (<750 mm) RCP 8.5

2070 Probability of Precipitation (<750 mm) RCP 8.5

2080 Probability of Precipitation (<750 mm) RCP 8.5

2090 Probability of Precipitation (<750 mm) RCP 8.5

2099 Probability of Precipitation (<750 mm) RCP 8.5

2020 Probability of Precipitation (>4200 mm) RCP 8.5

2050 Probability of Precipitation (>4200 mm) RCP 8.5

2060 Probability of Precipitation (>4200 mm) RCP 8.5

2070 Probability of Precipitation (>4200 mm) RCP 8.5

2080 Probability of Precipitation (>4200 mm) RCP 8.5

2090 Probability of Precipitation (>4200 mm) RCP 8.5

2099 Probability of Precipitation (>4200 mm) RCP 8.5

2020 Probability of Precipitation (750 mm-4200 mm) RCP 8.5

2040 Probability of Precipitation (>4200 mm) RCP 8.5

Future probabilities of annual precipitation suitable for the growth of coffee from 2020 to 2099