Data related to Earth’s atmosphere, including air quality,  GHG fluxes from land, historical weather patterns, and climate model outputs.

atmosphere

Atmosphere

Data generated by climate models, including future climate projects and scenarios.

climate-model-outputs

Climate Model Outputs

### Overview  
  
The Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature in the United States (U.S.) dataset shows the change in annual average temperature at ten year intervals between 2000 and 2080, compared to a baseline time period of 1960-1990. The data shown at each ten year interval represents a 31-year average, centered around the indicated year. For example, the average temperature in 2000 is actually an average of the temperature between the years 1985 and 2015. Average temperature projections are based on the future greenhouse gas emission rates determined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5. RCP 8.5 is a hypothetical scenario where there is no decrease in greenhouse gas emission rates within the 21st century. The dataset is shown in degrees Celsius (°C) at a spatial resolution of 0.0625°.
  
  
The increase in global greenhouse gas concentrations, and resulting change in climate, is set to fundamentally alter our relationship with the planet, impacting agriculture, infrastructure, disaster management, and human conflict. In order to anticipate and adapt to these changes, the Projected Change in Average Annual Temperature dataset provides projections on how temperature patterns are likely to change in the coming decades. This dataset improves the accessibility of climate data by summarizing global climate information and providing the information as an open dataset in a common geospatial format. 
  
  
This dataset has been processed by Vizzuality and the World Resources Institute using [Local Constructed Analogs](https://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip_projections/) (LOCA) projections for the continental United States. LOCA datasets are intended to provide access to climate and hydrologic projections to assess potential climate change impacts, regional climate projections, and policy responses to climate risk. A previous version of this dataset was processed and produced by the [Partnership for Resilience and Preparedness (PREP)](https://prepdata.org/), aiding in PREP’s mission to build resilience to climate change by improving access to climate data.  
  
### Methodology  
  
The Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature dataset was created with temperature data from LOCA. LOCA datasets were derived from Global Circulation Model (GCM) experiments that were produced for the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf). These experiments, known as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) included results from climate models designed to simulate climate under different levels of greenhouse gas concentrations.  

  
  
CMIP5 data include a large number of models (45), climate scenarios (4), years (150+), and variables (20-40). Even at its coarse resolution (1-4°) this results in billions of layers. By downscaling, LOCA extracts only the data they require and reduces the overall size of the data, using the [Livneh et al. (2015)](https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201542) dataset as historical reference.  

  
  
The annual average temperature for each year, climate model, and scenario was calculated using LOCA data on a per-pixel basis using the following steps:

All daily low temperature data over a given year was extracted and averaged to produce a yearly average low temperature value.
All daily high temperature data over a given year was extracted and averaged to produce a yearly average high temperature value.
Average annual temperature was calculated by taking the mean of the average daily temperature over a given year. Average daily temperature was calculated by dividing the sum of daily low temperature and daily high temperature by 2.

  
  
The average annual temperatures were combined into 31-year averages for the baseline time period of 1960-1990 and nine periods centered on the start of each decade from 2000 to 2080. The baseline average was then subtracted from each of the nine projected decades to create the projected change in annual average temperature.

  
  
The data shown at each ten year interval represents a 31-year average, centered around the indicated year. For example, the average temperature in 2000 is actually an average of the annual average temperatures between the years 1985 and 2015. 31-year averages were chosen because they minimize the effects of annual and decadal variation and highlight the long-term climate signal. The baseline period was selected to align with longstanding guidance from the World Meteorological Association. Additionally, units were converted from the original dataset units (Kelvin) to °C.
  
  
### Additional Information  
  
Resource Watch also shows LOCA RCP 8.5 data for [Projected Change in Cumulative Precipitation in the U.S.](https://resourcewatch.org/data/explore/a9567364-e5ba-415e-a834-310e279326b6), [Projected Change in Annual Average Maximum Temperature in the U.S.](https://resourcewatch.org/data/explore/4c6ba704-12f3-4954-92af-6c248c584233), [Projected Change in Annual Average Minimum Temperature in the U.S.](https://resourcewatch.org/data/explore/7ec68890-34a9-427c-907e-2f646f0dd9c8), [Projected Change in Cooling Degree Days in the U.S.](https://resourcewatch.org/data/explore/412a8589-4887-44f2-9f45-3db5fb3937e7), [Projected Change in Dry Spells in the U.S.](https://resourcewatch.org/data/explore/cd91e8d6-2e3d-46c1-9601-0dd7f524c7ba), [Projected Change in Frost Free Season in the U.S.](https://resourcewatch.org/data/explore/09e43293-98f1-4618-8e7e-d9f72cd5a4d7), [Projected Change in Extreme Precipitation in the U.S.](https://resourcewatch.org/data/explore/c985d4f6-9a03-4158-9955-e9f96db109ab), [Projected Change in Extreme Heat Days in the U.S.](https://resourcewatch.org/data/explore/9e9b465a-bb0f-4047-ad72-9b8fabc0fd09), [Projected Change in Heating Degree Days in the U.S.](https://resourcewatch.org/data/explore/6114c6fa-0ca6-4e06-ae23-413be0677503).   
  
Resource Watch shows only a subset of the data. Additional data is available for emissions scenario RCP 4.5. For access to the original LOCA dataset and additional information, see the Learn More link.  
  
### Visualizing the Data  
  
Our team reformatted this dataset before displaying it on Resource Watch. See the documentation on how Resource Watch processed the data on [Github](https://github.com/resource-watch/data-pre-processing/tree/master/cli_050-059_066-075_nexgddp_and_loca).  
  
### Disclaimer  
  
Excerpts of this description page were taken from the source metadata.

Baseline period of 1960-1990 and projected values for each decade 2000 to 2080

Average Temperature, derived from Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA)

cli-075-rw0-projected-change-in-annual-average-temperature-in-the-u-s-rw

2080 Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature in the U.S. (°C)

2000 Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature in the U.S. (°C)

2040 Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature in the U.S. (°C)

2060 Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature in the U.S. (°C)

2070 Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature in the U.S. (°C)

2010 Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature in the U.S. (°C)

2020 Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature in the U.S. (°C)

2030 Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature in the U.S. (°C)

2050 Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature in the U.S. (°C)

Projected change in annual average temperature in the United States

No Team

Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature in the U.S.