Data related to Earth’s atmosphere, including air quality,  GHG fluxes from land, historical weather patterns, and climate model outputs.

atmosphere

Atmosphere

Data generated by climate models, including future climate projects and scenarios.

climate-model-outputs

Climate Model Outputs

Data covering the marine environment, including fisheries, coral reef  health, ocean chemistry, and coastal zones.

oceans-seas-coasts

Oceans, Seas, & Coasts

### Overview  
  
This dataset shows projected sea surface height around the world for every year through 2100, relative to average sea surface height during 1986–2005. Sea surface height (SSH) varies geographically: shifting surface winds, the expansion of warming ocean water, and the addition of melting ice can alter ocean currents which, in turn, lead to changes in sea level that vary from place to place. Past and present variations in the distribution of land ice affect the shape and gravitational field of the Earth, which also cause regional fluctuations in sea level. Additional variations in sea level are caused by the influence of more localized processes such as sediment compaction and tectonics. To properly reflect this variability, the projections comprise a time series of 1° resolution geospatial grids.

  
  
Over relatively short time spans (hours to years), the influence of tides, storms, and climatic variability—such as El Niño—dominates sea level variations. Earthquakes and landslides can also have an effect by causing changes in land height and, sometimes, tsunamis. Over longer time spans (decades to centuries), the influence of climate change—with consequent changes in volume of ocean water and land ice—is the main contributor to sea level change in most regions. Ocean thermal expansion and glacier melting were the dominant contributors to 20th century global mean sea level rise. It is very likely that the rate of sea level rise during the 21st century will exceed the rate observed during 1971–2010.

  
  
These data were used in the construction of figures for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change. As the IPCC states, "Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems." Over recent decades, more than 90% of the net energy increase of the climate system has been stored in the ocean, and its warming provides both strong evidence for and measurement of a changing climate. 
  
  
### Methodology  
  
The final projections for global mean sea level rise represent the sum of anticipated contributions from a number of different sources. These include: ocean heat uptake and the subsequent thermal expansion of seawater; land water storage and changes in land surface characteristics that influence runoff or evapotranspiration rates, such as dams, irrigation schemes, or groundwater depletion; diminishing glaciers; and changes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, including direct outflows of water from melting and icebergs as well as more complex interactions between the sheets, the land surface on which they rest, and the ocean.

  
  
Annual time series for change in global mean surface air temperature and global mean sea level rise due to thermal expansion in the past and during the 21st century under different emissions scenarios were obtained from a set of 21 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) of the [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5)](https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/mips/cmip5/). AOGCMs have components representing the ocean, atmosphere, land, and cryosphere, and simulate sea surface height changes resulting from volcanic eruptions and changes in solar irradiance, and from anthropogenic increases in GHGs and aerosols. AOGCMs also exhibit internally generated climate variability, including such patterns as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and others that affect sea level. As in the real world, ocean density, circulation and sea level are dynamically connected in AOGCMs and evolve together. 

  
  
The overall contribution of an ice mass to sea level involves changes to either its surface mass balance (SMB) or changes in the dynamics of ice flow that affect outflow (i.e., solid ice discharge) to the ocean. SMB is primarily the difference between snow accumulation and the melt and sublimation of snow and ice (ablation). Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which incorporate or are coupled to sophisticated representations of the mass and energy budgets associated with snow and ice surfaces, are now the primary source of ice-sheet SMB projections. The change in Greenland ice sheet SBM was obtained by fitting results from an RCM using input from several CMIP5 AOGCMs

  
  
For the full documentation, please see the source [methodology](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Ch13SM_FINAL.pdf).
  
  
### Additional Information  
  
Resource Watch shows only a subset of the dataset. Available data include 10 geophysical sources that drive long-term changes in relative SSH:  
  
* 5 ice components (Greenland dynamic ice and surface mass balance, Antarctic dynamic ice and surface mass balance, and glaciers),  
  
* 3 ocean-related components, all of which are derived from CMIP5 models (dynamic SSH, global thermosteric SSH anomaly, and the inverse barometer effect from the atmosphere),  
  
* land water storage (also called terrestrial water), and  
  
* glacial isostatic adjustment (as a change in sea level relative to land). In addition to the relatively few fields actually used in the IPCC-AR5 figures, all individual components are available, both as maps of 20-year mean differences (always the 2081-2100 mean minus the 1986-2005 mean), and as time series with the 1986-2005 mean set as the common zero SSH anomaly value. Resource Watch displays the time series of total ensemble mean SSH for emissions scenario RCP 8.5; that same time series, along with those for lower, median, and upper projections, exist for RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 6.0 as well, along the projections from all 21 CMIP5 models. For access to the full dataset and additional information, click on the “Learn more” button.
  
  
### Visualizing the Data  
  
Our team reformatted this dataset before displaying it on Resource Watch. See the documentation on how Resource Watch processed the data on [Github](https://github.com/resource-watch/data-pre-processing/blob/master/ocn_003_projected_sea_level_rise/).  
  
### Disclaimer  
  
Excerpts of this description page were taken from the source metadata.

Ocean Watch

Projected Sea Level Rise

2100 Cumulative Sea Level Rise (m)

2060 Cumulative Sea Level Rise (m)

2030 Cumulative Sea Level Rise (m)

2050 Cumulative Sea Level Rise (m)

2080 Cumulative Sea Level Rise (m)

2010 Cumulative Sea Level Rise (m)

2020 Cumulative Sea Level Rise (m)

2040 Cumulative Sea Level Rise (m)

2070 Cumulative Sea Level Rise (m)

2090 Cumulative Sea Level Rise (m)