

Water, Peace & Security
Conflict Forecast
A forecast for peace or risk of emerging or ongoing conflict with at least 10 fatalities over the next 12 months
Created
Apr 25, 2024
Last Updated
Jul 16, 2024
Caution:
- The WPS Global Early Warning Tool is not intended to elucidate causal relationships between the predictor variables and conflict.
- The model’s conflict signal is noisy, with half of conflict predictions representing false positives.
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1 Data Files
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